Best Bets for August 18, 2024
Fever Can't Weather the Early Storm
One of the most frustrating things about soccer betting is when a red card ruins a promising play. Newcastle should have been able to hit Southampton for multiple goals, but the Magpies picked up a first-half red card and went to halftime up 1-0. In that situation, almost every team gets more conservative. And when you need a bigger margin, that’s the last thing you want.
Fortunately, the Liberty continued their first-half dominance of Vegas and the Phillies continue to own the Nationals, saving the day from being a total washout. 2-3 isn’t ideal, but it minimizes the damage so you hopefully do better the next day. Here are my best bets for August 18.
WNBA
Seattle Storm vs. Indiana Fever
The Fever really needed Seattle to hold on in Atlanta. That didn’t happen, and Indiana now likely has a pissed-off opponent waiting for it on Sunday. The Storm have won all three meetings this season, in part because Indiana falls behind early and has to spend the rest of the game playing from behind.
Unless the opponent is Phoenix, Indiana tends not to be a great-starting team. The Fever like to play fast, which leads to early turnovers as they settle into the game. Seattle doesn’t give teams time to settle. The Storm have led after a quarter in four straight games, and they’ve led all three meetings with Indiana after 10 minutes by at least seven points.
This isn’t just a 2024 thing with these teams. You could have taken Seattle -4.5 1Q and gone 10-2 in their past 12 meetings with Indiana. We only need the Storm to lead after one.
Pick: Seattle Storm -0.5 First Quarter (-120 at DraftKings)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Las Vegas Aces
As bad as this season has gone for the Sparks, they still know how to handle playing Vegas. When Los Angeles sees the red and black of the Aces, it’s a different team.
L.A. is 4-0 ATS in its past four meetings with Vegas, and the Sparks have actually won two of three from the Aces this year. If you’ve done the math, that means the Sparks are 4-19 against everyone else.
And the Dearica Hamby lawsuit might be a reason why the Sparks play so well against the Aces. She seems to take each matchup with Las Vegas personally. She’s scored 28 points or more three times this year; two were against the Aces. Last time, she didn’t even have Cameron Brink available to help and still got 28. Throw in that Vegas is coming off facing New York yesterday, and this spread should not be this high.
Pick: Los Angeles Sparks +16 (-110 at DraftKings)
MLB
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Reds
Kansas City seems to understand the assignment this weekend. The Royals have this series and the Angels before facing a deadly stretch of opponents. Beginning August 23 and going until September 11, Kansas City will play seven games with Cleveland, four with Houston and three each with Philadelphia, Minnesota and the Yankees. That’s 20 consecutive games against likely playoff squads.
That means sweeping the Reds and the Angels is imperative. And so far, the Royals have taken the Reds to the woodshed. Kansas City has outscored Cincinnati 20-2 this weekend, and this matchup has now seen the visiting team win six in a row.
Andrew Abbott isn’t pitching particularly well right now and Kansas City’s bats are hot. Getting the Royals at almost even money makes sense.
Pick: Kansas City Royals ML (-107 at BetRivers)
San Francisco Giants vs. Oakland Athletics
If the Giants had an offense, they’d probably be in the playoffs. As it is, they still own one of the scariest matchups for any opposing lineup. Blake Snell is back, and he’s dangerous. In seven starts since coming back full-time, Snell has as many earned runs allowed (five) as he does starts without allowing a run.
Oakland becomes the latest to try to solve Snell, and the Athletics have been feast or famine at the plate lately. Over their past nine games, the Athletics have scored seven or more runs three times, including dropping nine on the Mets. The other six? Nine runs total. With Snell on the mound, this likely goes toward the famine side.
Pick: Oakland Athletics Team Total Under 2.5 Runs (+120 at BetRivers)