Best Bets for February 1, 2024
Pioneers Ride Past Hapless Skyhawks
It’s a new month and I’m back on it for picks. I’m still trying to figure out how to make time for posting my picks, writing out my other assignments and navigating all that comes with our Hawaiian job assignment. Needless to say, it’s a process. I appreciate everyone sticking with me through this.
I’m hoping to post every day in February. Hopefully, I’ll manage. I apologize in advance if I don’t. What I know I will do is provide picks that I believe in because I’ve researched them and feel confident in my work. They won’t be perfect because these are games involving human beings, but they’ll be as well-informed as I can give you.
Here are my plays for February 1.
College Basketball
Stonehill at Sacred Heart
On Pawn Stars, Richard Harrison had a saying: “Ride the horse until it dies, and then cut a steak off it.” That’s basically where we are with Stonehill on the road. Granted, the Skyhawks are terrible no matter where they play, but on the road, they’ve been especially poor.
And they’ve got another road game coming up at Sacred Heart. The Pioneers’ biggest strength is turning steals into points, and Stonehill’s pretty bad at protecting the basketball. Sacred Heart comes in having lost its past two, but the Pioneers have played much better in their home gym. They’ve covered four straight at the Pitt Center, and this looks like number five.
Pick: Sacred Heart -11 (-110)
California at Arizona
Arizona’s heading in the wrong direction. The Wildcats aren’t a disaster by any means, but they look more like a Sweet 16 team than a Final Four threat. They’re letting lesser teams hang around too long, which has made fading them a wise move.
California’s showing itself to be a feisty underdog side in Mark Madsen’s first year in Berkeley. The Golden Bears are far from a good team (they managed to lose to Pacific in November), but they’ve won two straight and their past four defeats have come by a combined 19 points.
With Arizona trending downward, I think the Wildcats are giving a couple points too many here. I expect an Arizona win, but I’ll take 18 points with Cal.
Pick: California +18 (-110)
Eastern Kentucky at Queens
Eastern Kentucky burned me last time out, as the Colonels got a good lead on Jacksonville and then took their foot off the gas to ruin my team total. But that’s Jacksonville, which likes to slow the pace down. This is Queens, which doesn’t know the meaning of a slow pace.
The Royals’ past two games both exceeded 170 points, and Queens hasn’t yet held anyone in the A-Sun under 75 points. Out of 20 games against D-I competition, the opponent has hit 75 points 17 times. So the Colonels will score. As long as the Royals shoot a reasonable percentage, which should happen at home, this total’s manageable.
Pick: Over 160.5 (-110)
Longwood at High Point
Nobody’s been a bigger annoyance to High Point than Longwood. The Lancers have won 11 in a row against the Panthers, and coach Griff Aldrich has never lost to High Point. This year, however, High Point looks very capable of ending that streak.
And if it happens, the Panthers will likely do it with offense. High Point has won 10 in a row, and they’ve scored at least 78 points in nine straight games. The Lancers have proven pretty adept at hanging around, and the Panthers’ big weakness is their defense. If High Point’s ending the streak, that total’s going down.
Pick: Over 145.5 (-110)
San Diego at San Francisco
In the first meeting between these teams, the Dons crushed the Toreros on the boards because San Diego has nobody who can match up with Jonathan Mogbo in the paint. That hasn’t changed, and the Dons now seem to have their defense back on track.
Last time, the Toreros managed just 63 points at home against this defense. With San Francisco looking even stronger at home, San Diego likely stays under again.
Pick: San Diego TTU 65.5 (-110)
Soccer
Wolverhampton vs. Manchester United
Wolves have looked dynamite at home this year. They’ve not lost at the Molineux since Sept. 16 against Liverpool. Since then, they’ve turned losses into draws and draws into wins on their home turf with incredible success.
Getting these kinds of odds on a team that should be favored is too difficult to pass up. It’s very easy to see this bet going wrong, but as long as Wolves plays as it usually does, there’s a chance to really cash in here with the stronger side. United has lost three of its past four Premier League road matches, so I love the plus money here with Wolves.
Pick: Wolves ML +175