Best Bets for February 14, 2024
Spartans Struggle Again Away From East Lansing
Sometimes, you just need to take a break, and that’s where I was for the past week. It’s not ideal, but it was necessary.
It was certainly far more ideal than Michigan basketball, as the Wolverines remain a dead team walking. At this point, it will be a miracle if Juwan Howard gets another season in Ann Arbor. The Wolverines have clearly given up on the season, and it’s highly possible that they don’t win another game the rest of the way.
Hopefully, I’ll be a lot better on my bets. Here are my best bets for February 14.
College Basketball
Michigan State vs. Penn State
Michigan State isn’t getting the job done away from East Lansing. The Spartans have been dynamite at the Breslin Center, but they’re 1-5 SU on the road in the Big Ten and the one win was a two-pointer at Maryland.
Penn State is hot right now, having covered in four straight and seven of its past 10. The Nittany Lions have won three straight, they’ve already taken down Iowa and Wisconsin in Happy Valley, and they seem to be figuring out how to play under Mike Rhoades. They also lost by 31 in East Lansing and will likely come in with a much different mentality.
Pick: Penn State +4.5 (-110)
Massachusetts vs. Richmond
Richmond is the new Jacksonville. The Spiders have been deadly in the Robins Center, going 12-0 SU and 11-1 ATS in their building. They excel at defending the 3-pointer, they shoot it very well themselves and they hit their free throws when they get to the line.
There are other reasons to believe in the Spiders over the Minutemen. Josh Cohen isn’t playing his best right now for Massachusetts, and the Spiders have to start making statements. Richmond owns a glittering win over Dayton, but there isn’t much else to the profile.
The Spiders won’t get another crack at Dayton until the A-10 tournament final, where it would be a moot point. That means they pretty much have to run the table to get an at-large bid and certainly can’t take a home loss.
Pick: Richmond -3.5 (-110)
North Florida vs. Queens
Something’s wrong with North Florida right now. The Ospreys aren’t shooting it as well as they normally do, and when they don’t make shots, they’re vulnerable. North Florida has built its entire identity around being the Birds of Trey, but they’ve now lost four of five, including home losses to North Alabama and Central Arkansas.
Queens has proven a tough out at home. The Royals took down Eastern Kentucky by 18, one of just two A-Sun losses for the Colonels. Given how fast they play and how the Ospreys are struggling on defense, their team total should be in play. Queens has scored at least 84 points in five of its past six, including three straight at home. The Royals got 75 on North Florida the first time, and they’re much sharper at home than on the road.
Pick: Queens TTO 81.5 (-110)
Southern Illinois vs. Belmont
I’ve been waiting all year to use the Washington DC jingle, “Whatever you want, it’s Belmont”, but this year’s Belmont team isn’t good enough for that. And I don’t think they’re good enough to cover as a favorite against Southern Illinois. The Salukis won the first game by 10, and they’ve been the definition of “rubber-band AI” in recent weeks.
What do I mean by that? Every game, Southern Illinois plays to its competition. None of the Salukis’ past eight games have been decided by more than four points, and seven of their nine losses have come by six points or less.
This game is ideal for a teaser with another game you like. For example, you could take Penn State +9.5 and pair it with the Salukis +7.5. But if you want to bet it single, I still think Southern Illinois is the play. The Salukis do more on offense that counteracts the Bruins’ strengths.
Pick: Southern Illinois +2.5 (-110)
Tulsa at South Florida
Quietly, South Florida has become the nation’s best bet. The Bulls have dominated ATS in 2024, going 8-0-3 ATS and 10-1 SU since the calendar turned. South Florida shoots it well, doesn’t give up many easy looks and generally plays within its capabilities.
Tulsa arrives having lost three straight and failed to compete in any of them. The Golden Hurricane have played very poorly on the road, losing two of their past three road contests by more than 30 points. I can’t see them going into Tampa and upsetting the apple cart.
Pick: South Florida -8.5 (-110)
NHL
San Jose vs. Winnipeg
The value here cannot be ignored. The Peggers simply don’t blow teams out. Winnipeg has either lost the game outright or won by a single goal nine times in its past 10 contests. Almost every game the Jets play is low-scoring because Connor Hellebuyck is playing lights-out and the Jets’ offense isn’t clicking.
San Jose has been just awful this season, but the Sharks seem to be playing with enthusiasm. As long as the opponent isn’t Buffalo or Toronto, backing San Jose +1.5 has been a sure ticket to victory as of late. Over the Sharks’ past 13 games, taking them +1.5 would have won you money nine times, with the lone exceptions being the two games each against the Sabres and Maple Leafs.
Included in that stretch was a 2-1 loss to the Jets. Both games between the teams this season have finished 2-1, and the Sharks have actually won three of five against Winnipeg. I’m not banking on a win, but I like the value with a goal on my side at plus money.
Pick: San Jose +1.5 (+135)