Best Bets for January 25, 2024
Sharks Take a Bite Out of Skyhawks At Home
Sometimes, things just don’t work out for reasons unexplained. Yesterday’s Army-Boston University game offered a perfect example, as the Under 124 play should have cashed. With one minute to go, the teams were on 115. Army led by double digits. By all accounts, the game was over.
And then the fouls began. Somehow, after averaging less than three points per minute, these two offensively-challenged and poor free throw shooting teams flipped the game on its head. In a matter of 60 seconds, the teams combined for 13 points, sending my under from certain win to certain loss.
There are no sure things in sports betting unless a book gives you a promo worth at least 75 points. Anyone saying otherwise is lying to you. All we can do is make our best guesses based on what we’ve seen and our own intuition.
Here are my best bets for January 25. For a deep dive on SMU-North Texas and San Francisco-Gonzaga, check out Godzilla Wins.
College Basketball
Stonehill at Long Island
We know what to do with Stonehill on the road by now: Fade the heck out of the Skyhawks. That applies again here with Long Island at home. The Sharks are going nowhere, but they won the first meeting at Stonehill and they’re only giving two against a team that’s been totally helpless on the road.
The Skyhawks have just one Division I win all season. I don’t see that changing here, and two points isn’t much to worry about.
Pick: Long Island -2 (-110)
Jacksonville at Eastern Kentucky
Jacksonville inside Swisher Gym? Delightful. Jacksonville anywhere else? Disastrous. The Dolphins give up a staggering amount of points on the road, allowing everyone but Robert Morris and Stetson to hit at least 79 points.
And they’re off to McBrayer Arena in Richmond, Ky., where the Colonels play fast and come in hot. Eastern Kentucky’s won five in a row and hit 80 in four of them. This game will be played at Eastern Kentucky’s pace, and the Jacksonville defense can’t handle that.
Pick: Eastern Kentucky TTO 79.5 (-105)
Portland at Loyola Marymount
I’ve seen Portland up close. The Pilots are very poor, and they’ve been even worse away from home. In three West Coast Conference road games, Portland’s closest game has been 15 points and its lowest total surrendered was 95 points. When you’re letting Saint Mary’s hit 95 on you, you’ve got issues.
Loyola Marymount is clearly the fifth-best team in the WCC. The Lions are not on the level of Saint Mary’s, Gonzaga, Santa Clara or San Francisco, but they’re a much better team than the dregs of this league. They should cover this spread easily.
Pick: Loyola Marymount -10 (-110)
Binghamton at New Hampshire
When things go bad for Binghamton, they go bad in a big way. The Bearcats have nine defeats on the season, and all of them were by at least eight points. Out of four America East games, only one was decided by less than 20.
New Hampshire’s at home and looks like it’s on the upswing. The Wildcats aren’t good enough to win the league, but they should be a top-half team this year. A team like that should be able to handle this spread against Binghamton.
Pick: New Hampshire -7 (-110)
Northern Colorado at Eastern Washington
Eastern Washington leads the Big Sky for one reason: it knows how to shoot. The Eagles rank 12th in the nation in 3-point percentage, and they give the scoreboard operator at Reese Court a workout.
Northern Colorado ranks fifth from the bottom in 3-point defense. The Bears really don’t play good defense anywhere, but they’re especially poor at getting teams off the arc. In its past five road games, Northern Colorado hasn’t held anybody under 90.
At the breakneck pace Eastern loves, another 90-point night is possible.
Pick: Eastern Washington TTO 83.5 (-120)