Best Bets for January 27, 2024
Birds of Trey Attack Colonels' Weak Perimeter Defense
Sometimes, you just know things aren’t going to work out. That’s what I ran into Thursday with Eastern Washington. The Eagles are normally a good 3-point shooting team, hitting 38% from behind the arc. Northern Colorado is usually bad at defending from deep, ranking last in the Big Sky at 3-point defense.
So of course, the Eagles shot 6-for-26 from deep and ended up seven points short of the over. It should have worked out, but Eastern just couldn’t hit shots it usually makes.
It happens. These are the times where it’s important to remember your processes and trust them. Eventually, they will win out in the long run.
I hated every game on the slate Friday, so I decided not to force anything. I want to put out content every day, but I won’t create content just for content’s sake. One thing I can pledge to you: I will never give you a pick I don’t genuinely believe in.
Here are my best bets for January 27, 2024.
College Basketball
North Florida at Eastern Kentucky
The Birds of Trey go for the Kentucky sweep, and they’ve got a real chance to pull it off. Eastern Kentucky’s 3-point defense is not particularly good, and as we’ve established, if you can’t defend the 3-pointer against North Florida, the Ospreys will shoot the lights out.
I hate fading the Colonels at McBrayer, but the line is so large that I don’t have much of a choice here.
Pick: North Florida +7 (-110)
Dayton at Richmond
These are two of the strongest teams in the Atlantic 10 and names nobody wants to see across from them on Selection Sunday. They’re also both slow-paced, defense-oriented squads who do not commit a lot of fouls.
Both teams defend the 3 very well, which should offset each team’s strength at deep shooting. Slow pace plus a lack of fouls plus good 3-point defense equals under territory.
Pick: Under 132.5 (-110)
Jacksonville at Bellarmine
At 0-6 in the Atlantic Sun, Bellarmine’s not going to get a ton of love. But the Knights are a lot better than the record shows, and they’re going to get a win sooner rather than later.
With Jacksonville and its road woes coming to Louisville, I think it’s sooner. I’d have played this up to 9; getting Bellarmine at -1.5 looks like a gift.
Pick: Bellarmine -1.5 (-110)
Missouri at South Carolina
Missouri has not been good away from home. South Carolina has been very good at covering spreads. And yet, this feels like a trap. The Gamecocks upset Kentucky last time out, and that says they won’t be thinking about the Tigers when tip time rolls around.
If South Carolina’s not up to par, I think that puts the under in play. Missouri’s lost six in a row, but the Tigers look capable of keeping the game close and keeping the score low here.
Pick: Under 135.5 (-110)
Cal Poly at Hawai’i
Hawai’i’s shooters are lacking confidence in a big way right now. Something has gone out of this team, and the Rainbow Warriors don’t seem to know how to get it back.
Fortunately for them, Cal Poly doesn’t do anything well on offense. On defense, the Mustangs are at least competent, which should make for another tough shooting night for Hawai’i. And that means another play Under the rainbow.
Pick: Under 126.5 (-110)
Northern Arizona at Eastern Washington
The Eagles traditionally play tight games against Northern Colorado. They traditionally blast Northern Arizona, especially at Reese Court. The last time the Lumberjacks won in Cheney, Mike Adras was still coaching Northern Arizona and I was still covering the Big Sky at the Idaho State Journal.
Mike Adras hasn’t coached a college game since 2011. Northern Arizona’s hired three other coaches since then. And Eastern’s won 11 of 12 against the Lumberjacks in Cheney by double digits.
Pick: Eastern Washington -13.5 (-110)